Palestine, Shelter & Humanitarian Access
Nearly two million people in Gaza need shelter aid before winter, IOM says
The U.N. migration agency says nearly two million people in Gaza need shelter assistance, while current and planned supplies cover about 17% of winter needs and 1.8 million people are living in displacement sites, most exposed to flood risk.
A shelter emergency now overlaps with a severe weather threat
The International Organization for Migration said on October 9 that almost all of Gaza's population — nearly two million people — still need tents or other shelter assistance before winter. Reuters reported that IOM Director General Amy Pope said supplies already available or expected would meet only about 17% of identified winter shelter needs. That percentage describes material coverage, not the share of families who already have safe housing. [1][2][4]
IOM warned that a strengthening El Niño pattern could bring heavier rain into a territory where drainage systems are extensively damaged. The agency said around 1.8 million people live in displacement sites and that most of those sites face flood risk. Weather forecasts can change, but the exposure exists before any specific storm arrives because tents, drainage and buildings are already degraded. [1][2]
Tents are deteriorating and damaged buildings are unsafe
IOM said 54% of tents and makeshift shelters were in poor or very poor condition and needed replacement or repair. Arabic-language reporting by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed noted that tents generally last only six to twelve months, while many displaced families have cycled through fragile shelters for years. The statistic measures condition, not a verified count of tents that have already failed. [1][4]
The agency also said more than 3,600 structures identified in August were dangerous and at risk of collapse. An October 2 OCHA assessment used a different scope: more than 4,000 buildings required full or partial demolition, with over 2,300 still inhabited by nearly 44,000 people. Those figures should not be merged because they come from different assessments and cutoffs. [2][3]
Aid restrictions and funding gaps limit preparation
IOM said Israeli authorities had not allowed 8,600 emergency shelter kits containing wood, tarpaulins and basic materials to enter because the items were classified as dual use. Reuters sought comment from COGAT, the Israeli military body overseeing aid flows, but had not received a response when its report was published. Israel has cited security concerns for restrictions; the reviewed material did not provide an item-by-item security explanation for these kits. [1][2][4]
OCHA reported separately that funding shortages and entry restrictions were already constraining winter preparation, water desalination and waste collection. Its October 2 site review identified 217 of more than 400 assessed displacement sites as medium to high flood risk, housing about 235,000 people. That narrower assessed-site total is not inconsistent with IOM's later statement that most of Gaza's 1.8 million displaced-site residents face flood risk; the reports use different coverage and dates. [3][2]
Families face immediate risks while the totals remain dynamic
Displaced families, children, older people, people with disabilities and anyone living in damaged buildings face the most immediate risks from cold, flooding, structural collapse, contaminated water and interrupted access to care. The same shelter shortfall can also deepen protection risks for women and children when overcrowding and repeated displacement reduce privacy and safe space. [1][3]
The most consequential next facts are whether blocked kits and other construction materials enter Gaza, whether winter-supply coverage rises above 17%, and how rainfall affects specific sites and unsafe buildings. This report does not treat the El Niño outlook as proof that a particular flood will occur, and it does not convert agency estimates into a final census of every affected household. [1][2]
How the sources compare
| Source | What it adds | Scope or limitation |
|---|---|---|
| International Organization for Migration · English and Arabic | The primary October 9 warning, the nearly two-million need estimate, 17% supply coverage, tent condition, blocked-kit and flood-risk figures. | The release aggregates humanitarian estimates and does not provide a household-level census or predict the timing and severity of a specific storm. |
| Reuters · English | Independent reporting on the IOM announcement, El Niño context, COGAT's lack of an immediate response and the distinction between allowed and blocked shelter supplies. | The report relies on IOM for most field totals and had no contemporaneous Israeli response to the blocked-kit claim. |
| OCHA oPt · English | An earlier primary site assessment and separate counts for flood-prone displacement sites and unsafe inhabited buildings. | Its October 2 scopes and assessment coverage differ from IOM's October 9 figures and cannot be added directly. |
| Al-Araby Al-Jadeed · Arabic | Original-language regional reporting on the warning, tent life spans and the fourth winter of displacement. | Its core totals come from IOM; it is not an independent field census of all shelters. |
What remains unclear
When or whether the 8,600 shelter kits and other restricted materials will be allowed into Gaza.
How quickly winter-supply coverage can rise above the reported 17% and how funding and access constraints will change.
The exact overlap among people in flood-prone sites, unsafe buildings and households needing multiple forms of shelter assistance.
The timing, location and severity of heavy rainfall cannot be established from the humanitarian warning alone.
COGAT had not supplied a current response to Reuters about the specific shelter kits at publication time.
Sources & translations
- International Organization for Migration — Nearly 2 Million in Gaza Need Urgent Shelter Assistance as Winter Looms, IOM Chief WarnsThe Arabic version was reviewed for the consequential totals and access language and checked against the English release and Reuters.
- Reuters — Almost all Gaza residents need shelter as El Niño threatens flooding, UN agency says
- U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs — Humanitarian Situation Report | 2 October 2026
- Al-Araby Al-Jadeed — الأمم المتحدة: سكان غزة يواجهون شتاء رابعاً بلا مأوى ملائمArabic reviewed in the original and summarized in English; figures were checked against IOM and OCHA rather than combined.
Updates & corrections
- — Initial report preserves the different IOM and OCHA assessment scopes, treats the El Niño outlook as risk rather than a guaranteed event and identifies both access and funding constraints.