Sudan famine risk spreads as drought and war damage harvests in Darfur and Kordofan

A new alert says conditions are worsening beyond earlier hotspots

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification issued an urgent alert, reported October 12–13 by AP and Sudan Tribune, about deteriorating conditions across greater Darfur and Kordofan. The warning covers places already identified as at risk of famine under a worst-case scenario for October 2026 through January 2027 and additional locations showing rising acute malnutrition and drought stress. It is a risk alert, not a declaration that every named area is currently in famine. [1][2][3]

The alert attributes the deterioration to interacting pressures: continued fighting and displacement, severe drought, weak humanitarian funding and restricted access. Sudan Tribune’s Arabic report says West Kordofan remains particularly isolated by long and constrained routes from Nyala, Khartoum and al-Dabbah, leaving communities exposed to worsening food insecurity. [2][1]

Drought is cutting crops, pasture and household income

AP reported that El Niño-linked drought affects more than half of Sudan and cited poor vegetation growth on 64% of cropland in North Darfur and roughly half of cropland in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan. It also reported that West Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004 and that delayed rain and critically low food stocks are worsening conditions in North Darfur. [1][2]

Radio Dabanga’s Arabic reporting adds local evidence from the same regions. Its October 13 summary of FEWS NET projections says 2026 harvests are expected to range from below average to far below average across much of Darfur and Kordofan after September rainfall declined. The report describes deteriorating pasture, water shortages, earlier southward livestock migration, livestock losses and added tension between herders and farmers. A separate October 8 report from Um Kadadah in North Darfur quoted the local emergency room describing failed crops, scarce food, drinking water and medicine, and collapsing household purchasing power. [3][4]

Child malnutrition and displacement are moving in the wrong direction

AP reported that severe acute malnutrition among children entering nutrition services in Nyala rose from about 5% to 11% between January and August, while two displacement camps in South Darfur recorded global acute malnutrition above famine thresholds. These service-based measurements do not establish a population-wide famine classification on their own, but they are a serious warning alongside crop and access data. [1][2]

Radio Dabanga reported that 1,394 people in 260 families arrived in Tawila, North Darfur, over five days ending October 3. It said women, children and older people made up most arrivals and attributed the movement to insecurity, drought, hunger and limited basic services. That local count describes one reception area and period; it should not be added to national displacement totals without checking for overlap. [5]

The national baseline remains severe, but the new warning is about direction

A May joint release from the World Food Programme, FAO and UNICEF said about 19.5 million people—two in five people in Sudan—were in IPC Phase 3 or worse, including about 135,000 in catastrophic Phase 5 conditions across 14 hotspots. The October alert does not replace that nationwide estimate with a new national total; it adds evidence that drought, conflict and access constraints are worsening conditions as the harvest period begins. [6][1][2]

Humanitarian agencies say safe, sustained access and substantially more assistance are needed. The reviewed reporting does not establish how much aid will arrive, whether routes will remain open or how the warring parties will respond. Ending the war remains central to reducing hunger, but no current peace process has secured those conditions. [1][6]

How the sources compare